Did not come 30 years: Do we have sufficient energy resources
From;    Author:Stand originally
Besides oil insanity, iron ore also became mad rock, will coal become mad coal henceforth? Do not control energy demand now, consequence is price of higher henceforth the sources of energy, its economy consequence is persistent cost is driven model inflation is sluggish bilges even 140 dollars / bucket! At the beginning of July, international crude price achieved a record again. World each country appeared to be aimed at the protest of oil price and demonstrate in succession, but did not adapt up to now the ascendant curve of oil price. It seems that, chinese drivers are far happier than international person of the same trade -- although China of not long ago announces case of finished product oil price every tons go up,move 1000 yuan (RMB) , but the 60 % left and right sides that the price still is equivalent to international price only.

Reality actually astringent. Our troublesome a bit is not as little as exotic nation, from short-term arrive long-term, the sources of energy more and more one of main obligation requirements that make Chinese economy growth.

What be transmitted extensively is hopeful forecasting is, change considering the city, industrialized still half-baked, and Chinese government is right of economy control ability, although guard estimation, chinese economy still can grow 30 years quickly again. Just, this in forecasting, did not reply: ?0 of さ of overstep one's authority of clumsy pure boil in a covered pot over a slow fire growing permanent teeth year, do we have sufficient energy resources?

The research center of economy of the sources of energy of Xiamen university China that I am in finished a research recently, the result makes clear, assume to 2020 heavy industry scale drops somewhat, energy efficiency rises somewhat, the city changes a level to be 60 % , if economy keeps annual,grow 9 % , consumption of energy of Chinese will achieve coal of 5.3 billion tons of standards, 2 times was 2007 probably. Reduce economic increase rate 7 % , energy demand will reduce coal of 4.5 billion tons of standards.

Chinese GDP occupied world gross 2006 5.5% the left and right sides, and 30% what rolled steel consumption occupies world rolled steel to use up about, cement is used up 54% what occupy world cement wastage about. The high cost closely related these and the sources of energy can the industry grows quickly, make 2003 to 2007 5 years, chinese the sources of energy year consumptive gross is close to double digit to grow. The demonstration of economics considers to make clear, the city is changed is the main reason that causes energy demand to increase, chinese case is not special case.

Countrywide city was changed 2006 rate (the proportion that urban population holds total population) for 43% , income country waits in the distance 61% , good-paying country the difference of 78% is very far. Press this estimation, to 2020, china has 300 million population about will migratory live into the city and work (be equivalent to at present American total population) . The city changes a process to urge large-scale city infrastructure and housing construction, need many cement and iron and steel, these can be produced in home only -- the can be China to produce so much without which country rolled steel on the world and cement.
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