The current situation that new energy resources uses and future
From;    Author:Stand originally
International crude price already stood in 100 dollars upper part, the discussion about energy crisis is incessant Yu Er. Tellurian mankind feels energy crisis is being approached step by step even more. The article with " cease Bai Tefeng is worth theory " for jumping-off place, supply the account that reduces to increase two respects to analyse energy crisis to arise with global demand to reach its to be opposite from crude oil the negative effect of world economy, find out answer strategy accordingly, develop energetically but second birth the sources of energy, include wind energy, solar energy, raw material can be mixed nuclear energy, accomplish against a rainy day.

The reason that international oil price rises:

Look to already experienced oil crisis 3 times in 20 centuries mankind from the history, 1973-1974 year middle east war erupts, case of original at that time oil price from 1973 be less than 3 dollars every pails to go up to more than 13 dollars; The influence that wait leaves the Iranian home revolution that erupted 1978 and two Yi war, oil price jumps from 13 dollars the 80 dollars to the end of 1981; Thalassic 1990 war erupts, the crude oil that comes from Iraq is supplied interrupt, oil price inside 3 months rise urgently by 14 dollars to 42 dollars. There is altogether to be the same as a characteristic in crisis of these 3 oil, because the political reason such as the war is caused,all be namely, and current crude price already stood every pails of 100 much dollars, highest touch 135 dollars. Famous cast a Gao Cheng to forecast future 6 months oil price will be as high as 150 dollars / bucket, but rise in price this the reason differs with before a few however: From apparently look, because the dollar depreciates to be with congenial fund place,Europe admire overcomes member country to think this crude oil rises in price is, and rather than supplies shortage place to come, accordingly so far they do not agree to raise crude oil yield, but the author thinks this is not essential cause. The substantial reason that crude price rises quickly is people anxious not little oil supplies homebred quantity to already reached the limit, prospective crude oil is supplied will glide stage by stage. Crude oil of the world before seeing eye from the watch is supplied should be to be able to satisfy current daily requirement, but sensible people begins to worry about global crude production when to achieve acme, how many years can tellurian crude oil still use?

Crude oil by nature is a kind of commodity, be a kind cannot commodity of reborn resource sex, the lifecycle that should accord with commodity as commodity is academic. According to American rocksy M.K. Cease Bert (M.K.HUBBERT) put forward 1956 " cease Bai Tefeng is worth theory " : Oil output from 0 begin, rise stage by stage next, the half of the final recoverable reserves that predicts when place was come out to arrive at acme later by exploitation, can appear next pay is degressive phenomenon. Incorporate of this one phenomenon is: After lard cropland discovers, production is accelerated quickly, yield rises ceaselessly, supply increase, but drop gradually as reserves of old exploitation lard field, the trend is dried up; At the same time the discovery of small oil field compares difficulty again, development difficulty and cost are higher. Come so new oil field discovers rate goes ceaselessly delay, just some oil field reserves diminish ceaselessly, this both interweaves together, bring about oil production to glide gradually after arriving at acme, form what oil supplies to decrease thereby. Oil production of the United States reached all-time peak 1970, can extract everyday crude oil many pails 900, but evermore crop begins slow fall after a rise, nowadays, can produce 5.5 million pails about everyday. Subsequently, the admire that be not Europe overcomes national oil output to increase somewhat, but 1999, oil field appeared again another major change, the oil output that is not Ou Peike country also reached the limit it seems that, and had begun probably to drop. At present the most important oil production country is a Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi Arabia has reserves of how many oil after all, data is at present ambiguous. According to two rocksy -- division forest. Campbell and Jean. Laherui ever was in 1998 " scientific American " write on the magazine civil point out: "Saudi Arabia, the oil reserves that official institute announces the country such as Iraq and Iran is extremely suspect, they are probable too exaggerated. " accordingly, the oil production of the Saudi Arabia may have reached peak value. Accordingly we should realise at present country of Ou Peike's member rises oil price soberly reason end is for congenial fund place, and do not agree with supply shortage, reject to raise crude oil yield, its backside is probable it is to containing its oil output already arrived the fact of the limit that does not dispute.
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